Project PCW

What is the Correct PCW To Use?

The answer to this question is one of the most important data fields in supermarket sales forecasting, yet how can we be sure we are using the right numbers? If the PCW is too low, there is not enough potential to forecast success for our site.  If the PCW is too high, there will be an overabundance of sales potential causing us to build where we shouldn’t.

Gravitec Development is embarking on a long-term research project, Project PCW, with the goal of better understanding the influences to supermarket PCW values. We hope for two main results:

  1. First, we want to understand how to compute a more accurate PCW using the demographics we have and the type of area we are forecasting for.
  2. Second, we will overhaul our WIN:PCW program to reflect this better set of equations, and to provide more flexible data abilities for today’s technology.

Our methodology will start with the BLS Diary of Consumer Expenditure Survey conducted annually. We are currently analyzing 2017 data by looking at the micro-expenditure database.  This database contains hundreds of thousands of purchase records by families that participated in the study.  By this technique we can truly separate the supermarket items from the non-supermarket items and feel confidant of our inclusions.

Here is a small sample of what we have found so far:

For 2017 the average grocery PCW was $34.73.

The average Supermarket PCW was $47.87.

That makes the non-grocery factor 27% of the total PCW.

The average Food Away PCW was $23.49.

The relationship between Supermarket PCW and Household Size.

The relationship between Supermarket PCW and Household Income

The relationship between Supermarket PCW, Region of the country and Urban/Rural.

The Relationship between Supermarket PCW and Major Metropolitan Areas (PSUs)

The Relationship between Supermarket PCW and Race

Household Alcohol Purchases

Keep watching this site for more findings, including data, relationships, and graphs.